Asteroid mining could crash platinum prices by over 75%, MIT study

How would asteroid mining work?

The target is metallic M-type asteroids, thought to be leftovers from the metal cores of early planets. They are richer in platinum group metals than ordinary Earth ore. One asteroid about 1 km across may hold more of these metals than humans have ever mined.

California-based AstroForge plans to use small probes that cost a few million dollars to launch, instead of multibillion-dollar ships. A probe would anchor to the asteroid with magnets, vaporise the surface with a high-power laser, and separate the precious metals from nickel and iron on board. Only the refined metal would come home, in a heat-shielded capsule.

What does the simulation predict?

The team built a dynamic model covering the 20 years after the first successful delivery to Earth. Phase one is a space gold rush. Prices stay high at first, so early miners sell at current market rates, and the researchers say industry profits could rise to as much as eight times today's level, drawing in investment.

Phase two is a collapse. Space supply overtakes Earth's mine output, and high-cost mines, such as those in North America, lose out first. Within 15 years, the paper says, asteroid metal could fully replace mined supply and prices could fall by more than 75%.

Cheaper platinum could lower the cost of electrolysers, the machines that make hydrogen. Fewer deep mines would also mean less acid mine drainage, less arsenic pollution and fewer dangerous underground jobs.

The engineering is still unsolved: reaching an asteroid, mining it stably, refining the metal and landing it safely. The authors say the fast-growing commercial space sector makes that future look closer.