UNEP: US CO2 Emissions Rose 133 Million Tons Under Trump

US carbon dioxide emissions climbed by 133 million tons last year, the largest increase among major economies, according to a new report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). The report links the rise to surging electricity demand and a revival of coal-fired power generation.

Per-person emissions in the United States reached nearly 18 tons, tying Russia for the highest level in the world. The report argues that American emissions are disproportionately worsening the climate crisis, since even small increases in temperature raise risks worldwide.

Policy rollbacks behind the numbers

The report ties the trend to the Trump administration's policies. Over the past year, the government has accelerated domestic oil and gas production while dismantling the framework that supported climate policy and clean energy growth. It formally withdrew from the Paris Agreement, the second time it has done so. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act repealed most of the climate measures in the Inflation Reduction Act. Emission standards for power plants and vehicles, along with methane rules, have been loosened, and federal support for electric vehicles and renewables has been reversed.

As a result, projected US emissions in 2030 are about 900 million tons higher than they would be had the Biden administration's policies continued.

A 1.5°C target slipping out of reach

The Paris Agreement aimed to hold warming below 1.5°C, but the report says that goal is now effectively out of reach. Its best-case scenario would cap the mid-century temperature peak below 1.7–1.8°C, which would require global emissions to fall 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035, plus larger-scale removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. Temporary overshoot of 1.5°C is already assumed in IPCC pathways, so the concept is not new.

Even if every Paris signatory meets its current pledges and keeps going, there is only a 66% chance of limiting warming to 2.6°C by 2100. Compared with last year's report, projected warming is 0.2–0.3°C higher, and roughly half of that increase stems from the US abandoning its emissions targets, along with revised estimates of past emissions.

The findings arrive a few weeks before COP31 in Turkey. The report says the loss of the 1.5°C goal should bring fresh urgency to the talks, though the United States, the country that has contributed most to the acceleration, is unlikely to take part.