AI leaves a mark on Spanish unemployment, hitting coders first

Artificial intelligence is starting to show up in Spain's unemployment figures, though so far only as a hairline crack rather than a collapse. A working paper from the Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB) compares 502 occupations using public employment service (SEPE) data from January 2021 to March 2026.

The result: for every ten extra points of AI exposure, registered unemployment in an occupation rose 1.2% in the 25 months after ChatGPT launched in late 2022. In the period after that, as AI spread through companies, the figure climbs to 1.7%. The authors themselves admit that second number is imprecise and should be read as an indication of a trend, not a statistical result.

Programmers at the top of the list

To measure exposure, the researchers used Anthropic's index, which analyzes real-world use of Claude across jobs. Programmers rank first, with 75% of their tasks already covered by AI. Data entry clerks, sales agents and financial analysts follow, while software and multimedia analysts and designers also make the top 10.

The pattern is nuanced. The IEB researchers speak of an "accumulation of registered unemployment" but not of fewer hires in the most exposed occupations. Hiring holds steady while the number of unemployed grows. The paper does not say whether this is because more people enter those fields or because jobseekers take longer to find work.

Not a collapse, and young workers in focus

Other data point the same way. A report from BBVA Research and Fedea found that employment in the most exposed occupations is growing above average, breaking the expected negative link between exposure and joblessness.

Youth remains the sensitive spot. Stanford researchers found employment among 22- to 25-year-olds in AI-exposed jobs is 19% below expectations, mainly because of fewer hires rather than more layoffs. At Anthropic itself, junior profiles fell from 27% to 9% of technical hires between early 2025 and June 2026.

In Spain, the IEB found unemployment rises most among workers aged 30 to 39, up to 3.4% per ten points of exposure in the latest period. Contracts for under-30s in exposed occupations are also growing, though possibly reflecting higher turnover rather than more stable jobs.