Satellite Deposit Scheme: $200,000 Bond Could Cut Space Debris

A refundable deposit of $200,000 per satellite could significantly reduce the amount of dead hardware left in orbit, according to a study published in Nature Communications. The model suggests the annual mass of newly abandoned satellites could fall by more than one third.

The team, led by Indigo Brownhall, includes researchers from University College London, the University of Colorado Boulder and several other institutions, among them the European Space Agency. The mechanism resembles a bottle-return scheme. Before launch, an operator pays a set amount tied to a specific satellite, and the money sits in a secured account throughout the mission. If the operator removes the spacecraft from orbit on schedule, it gets the deposit back with interest. If not, the money is forfeited and could feed a fund for actively removing debris.

A problem that keeps growing

The data used by the researchers show that between 2010 and 2024 only 40 percent of satellites in orbits that do not clear themselves within the required time were successfully removed after their missions. That does not mean 60 percent of all satellites remain in space, as many fly low enough for atmospheric drag to bring them down. At higher altitudes, however, a failed satellite can stay for decades and raise the collision risk. According to the latest ESA report, more than three large objects re-enter the atmosphere every day on average.

Why $200,000

The researchers combined a model of operator decisions with a 25-year simulation of satellite and debris numbers. In some scenarios, the total economic benefit, including operating costs and orbital risk, rose by as much as 27 percent. Above $1 million, extra gains shrank, because costs for operators climbed faster than the orbital environment improved.

The scheme would not need to be global from day one. If it applied only in countries representing 20 percent of the satellite market, the number of abandoned satellites could still drop by up to 18 percent, although effectiveness fell when operators moved to markets without deposits. Brownhall has suggested that states could require deposits from satellites under their jurisdiction, and that the EU could tie access to its satellite services market to the rules.

The results come from an economic simulation, not a live market, and the proposal is not law. Enforcement and international competition would have to be resolved first. The stakes include the Kessler syndrome, in which collisions generate debris that triggers further collisions, while plans such as SpaceX's request for a constellation of up to 100,000 new Starlink satellites point to ever more hardware in orbit.